Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence
Indicateurs du changement climatique mondial 2024 : mise à jour annuelle des indicateurs clés de l'état du système climatique et de l'influence humaine
Forster, Piers M. ; Smith, Chris ; Walsh, Tristram ; Lamb, William F. ; Lamboll, Robin ; Cassou, Christophe ; Hauser, Mathias ; Hausfather, Zeke ; Lee, June-Yi ; Palmer, Matthew D. ; von Schuckmann, Karina ; Slangen, Aimée B. A. ; Szopa, Sophie ; Trewin, Blair ; Yun, Jeongeun ; Gillett, Nathan P. ; Jenkins, Stuart ; Matthews, H. Damon ; Raghavan, Krishnan ; Ribes, Aurélien ; Rogelj, Joeri ; Rosen, Debbie ; Zhang, Xuebin ; Allen, Myles ; Aleluia Reis, Lara ; Andrew, Robbie M. ; Betts, Richard A. ; Borger, Alex ; Broersma, Jiddu A. ; Burgess, Samantha N. ; Cheng, Lijing ; Friedlingstein, Pierre ; Domingues, Catia M. ; Gambarini, Marco ; Gasser, Thomas ; Gütschow, Johannes ; Ishii, Masayoshi ; Kadow, Christopher ; Kennedy, John ; Killick, Rachel E. ; Krummel, Paul B. ; Liné, Aurélien ; Monselesan, Didier P. ; Morice, Colin ; Mühle, Jens ; Naik, Vaishali ; Peters, Glen P. ; Pirani, Anna ; Pongratz, Julia ; Minx, Jan C. ; Rigby, Matthew ; Rohde, Robert ; Savita, Abhishek ; Seneviratne, Sonia I. ; Thorne, Peter ; Wells, Christopher ; Western, Luke M. ; van der Werf, Guido R. ; Wijffels, Susan E. ; Masson-Delmotte, Valérie ; Zhai, Panmao
The indicators show that human activities are increasing the Earth's energy imbalance and driving faster sea-level rise compared to the AR6 assessment. For the 2015-2024 decade average, observed warming relative to 1850-1900 was 1.24 [1.11 to 1.35] °C, of which 1.22 [1.0 to 1.5] °C was human-induced. The 2024-observed best estimate of global surface temperature (1.52 °C) is well above the best estimate of human-caused warming (1.36 °C). However, the 2024 observed warming can still be regarded as a typical year, considering the human-induced warming level and the state of internal variability associated with the phase of El Niño and Atlantic variability. Human-induced warming has been increasing at a rate that is unprecedented in the instrumental record, reaching 0.27 [0.2-0.4] °C per decade over 2015-2024. This high rate of warming is caused by a combination of greenhouse gas emissions being at an all-time high of 53.6±5.2 Gt CO2e yr?1 over the last decade (2014-2023), as well as reductions in the strength of aerosol cooling. Despite this, there is evidence that the rate of increase in CO2 emissions over the last decade has slowed compared to the 2000s, and depending on societal choices, a continued series of these annual updates over the critical 2020s decade could track decreases or increases in the rate of the climatic changes presented here.
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