Tropical forest carbon offsets deliver partial gains amid persistent over-crediting
Les compensations carbone issues des forêts tropicales n'offrent que des gains partiels, dans un contexte de sur-crédit persistant
Tang, Yuzhi ; Yang, Chao ; Wu, Haishan ; Xu, Zihao ; Tan, Linlin ; Tu, Wei ; Li, Bowen ; Li, Zhaopeng ; Wang, Zhijun ; Guo, Kai ; Xiong, Siting ; Chen, Shoubin ; Zhang, Bo ; Tian, Jindong ; Hu, Yu ; Chen, Zhipeng ; Chase, Jonathan M. ; Li, Qingquan
Année de publication
2025
REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation Plus) projects generate carbon credits to offset emissions, but recent studies have questioned their effectiveness. We evaluated 52 voluntary REDD+ projects across 12 tropical countries using synthetic control methods. Only a minority of project units showed statistically significant reductions in deforestation, and just 19% met their reported emissions targets. Nonetheless, many underperforming projects still delivered partial climate benefits, with an estimated 13.2% of tradable credits supported by counterfactual analysis. Effectiveness varied by region, with stronger performance in Brazil and Africa. Although systematic over-crediting remains a concern, our results suggest greater climate benefits than previous assessments. Improving baseline methodologies and strengthening verification frameworks will be essential for enhancing the credibility and impact of forest carbon offsets.</div>
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